Start Here: Receipts, no theater
(What counts as evidence here)
Forge Signals is the communication branch of Forged Culture. Same doctrine. Same standards. Different delivery.
If you build or run systems, you are already on the hook.
If you ship it, approve it, or sign it, you are on the hook.
This post is the gate. It is the canonical definition of Evidence Receipts. If you see a different set, it is drift. Link: Start Here.
In Forge Signals, evidence means receipts that meet the bar.
Reality-keeping, not gatekeeping
This is not about sounding smart. This is about staying honest when incentives reward performance over accuracy.
Precision is care for the people who inherit the blast radius.
I am not interested in vibes. I am interested in control.
Control is cheaper than regret.
The Vow
No scope, no claim.
No disproof, no publish.
No revocation, no delegation.
Receipts. No theater.
If it fails the bar, it is theater. Delete it.
The Bar
A receipt has one job: make a claim reproducible enough to steer a decision without a personality contest.
Bar
Reproducible in 30 minutes by a skeptical peer (read access, no stake), from scope and method.
Receipt reality
A screenshot is not a receipt.
A dashboard crop is not a receipt.
A story about what we usually see is not a receipt.
A metric without a definition and a boundary is not a receipt.
Gate Card
Gate Card (paste this anywhere)
Scope: bounded system, environment, time window, in and out
Method: reproducible steps, definitions, sampling, retention
Disproof check: this claim is wrong if: ____
Failure modes: how this evidence can lie
Decision impact: what changes by end of work week, and who owns it.
This is the Gate Card. Paste it at the end of posts.
No Theater
Theater is work that makes risk feel managed without actually managing it.
Operational rule
If it cannot alter a decision by end of work week, delete it.
That is not harsh. That is merciful.
Theater burns the careful people first.
A cold specimen
Claim: Costs rose 18% week over week.
Receipt: scope and method, plus one disproof line, then a ranked delta list with owners.
No meeting required. No moralizing required. Reality does the talking.
Evidence Receipts
This is the only receipt taxonomy defined in Forge Signals. This post is where it lives.
Use these when you are making claims about reality: behavior, cost, risk, outcomes, controls.
Scope receipt
Purpose: bound the claim so it cannot slide.
Minimum
System boundary (in and out)
Environment
Time window
Tell
If the scope changes mid-argument, the claim is not real yet.
Method receipt
Purpose: make the observation reproducible.
Minimum
Query or steps
Definitions
Sampling and retention assumptions
Tell
If you cannot write down the query, you do not have a receipt.
Change receipt
Purpose: tie claims to a change surface instead of feelings.
Minimum
What changed
When
Where recorded
Who owned it
Tell
“Nothing changed” is a hypothesis, not a conclusion.
Outcome receipt
Purpose: state impact without laundering it through presentation.
Minimum
Impact definition
Measurement method (how impact was counted)
Baseline
Window and delta
Tell
If you need to sell it, you do not understand it.
Control receipt
Purpose: prove the guardrail is real.
Minimum
The control
Where it lives
Revocation path
Last exercised or last fired, with outcome recorded
Tell
A control that has never fired is a rumor.
Evidence vs trace
Logs, metrics, and traces are traces. Traces can lie.
Receipts name their failure modes:
sampling and dropped data
retention windows
definition drift
missing dimensions
instrumentation drift after deploys
If you cannot name how your evidence can be wrong, you are not doing evidence. You are doing persuasion.
Pattern-only posts
Some posts are patterns and failure modes, not outcome claims.
Pattern-only rules
Still state scope and failure modes.
Include test hooks.
Do not claim outcomes.
Pattern-only is not an escape hatch. It is an honesty label.
Publishing Enforcement
This is how Forge Signals keeps its own mouth honest.
Every post carries a Last updated date.
Stop-ship gate
Scope present
Method present (if claim)
Disproof present (if claim)
Revocation stated (if control or delegation)
Failure modes named
Artifact shipped
When Leadership Resists
When leadership demands a decision without receipts
Name the missing receipt in writing.
Name the risk acceptance in writing.
Name the owner.
Stop owning what you cannot control.
Receipts change the room because they make the truth cheap and the theater costly.
People who live on theater do not like that.
Receipts, no theater.
Per ignem, veritas.
Last updated: 2025-12-28